Risk Assessment in Child Protection: Social Work Guide UK

Understanding Risk Assessment

Risk assessment in child protection is the process of identifying, analysing, and evaluating the likelihood and potential impact of harm to a child. It's a core skill in social work that informs decisions about intervention, protection, and support.

Risk assessment is not a one-off event but an ongoing process. Circumstances change, new information emerges, and risk levels fluctuate. Effective risk assessment combines structured analysis with professional judgement, informed by research and experience.

Key Concepts

Risk vs Harm

Harm: Something negative that has happened to a child (past)
Risk: The likelihood of harm occurring in the future

Types of Risk

Imminent risk: Harm is likely to occur immediately or very soon
Ongoing risk: Harm is likely if circumstances continue unchanged
Cumulative risk: Multiple lower-level concerns that together create significant risk
Escalating risk: Situation is deteriorating, risk increasing

Risk Factors

Risk factors are characteristics or circumstances associated with increased likelihood of harm. They are indicators, not determinants - their presence doesn't mean harm will occur, but they increase the probability.

Child Risk Factors

Very young age (under 1 especially vulnerable)
Disability or additional needs
Premature birth or difficult neonatal period
Behavioural difficulties
Previous abuse or neglect
Child seen as "different" or scapegoated

Parental/Carer Risk Factors

History of abuse or neglect as a child
Substance misuse (drugs or alcohol)
Mental health difficulties (especially untreated)
Domestic abuse (as victim or perpetrator)
Learning disability affecting parenting
Young or immature parent
Own experience of care
Denial or minimisation of concerns
Previous children removed

Family/Environmental Risk Factors

Domestic abuse in the home
Social isolation
Poverty and financial stress
Unstable housing or homelessness
Dangerous adults with access to children
Transient household members
Lack of support network
Non-engagement with services

Important: Risk factors are correlational, not causal. Many parents with multiple risk factors provide safe, loving care. Risk factors should inform assessment, not determine outcomes.

Protective Factors

Protective factors reduce the likelihood of harm and build resilience. They are just as important to assess as risk factors.

Child Protective Factors

Secure attachment to at least one carer
Good health and development
Positive peer relationships
Achievement and sense of competence
Ability to communicate needs
Access to supportive adult outside family

Family Protective Factors

At least one consistently available, responsive parent
Stable, positive parental relationship
Recognition of problems and motivation to change
Engagement with support services
Extended family support
Adequate income and stable housing
Strong support network

Analysing Risk

Effective risk analysis goes beyond listing factors to understanding their interaction and meaning:

Questions to Consider

What has happened to this child? (Nature and severity of harm)
Who poses the risk? (Identify source of harm)
What circumstances led to the harm? (Context and triggers)
Is the risk ongoing, escalating, or reducing?
What protective factors exist?
Do protective factors mitigate the risk sufficiently?
What would need to change to reduce risk?
What is the likelihood of that change occurring?
What would happen if nothing changes?

The Risk Analysis Triangle

Consider three key questions:

What is the nature of the harm? (Type, severity, frequency)
What is the likelihood of harm occurring? (High, medium, low)
What is the potential impact? (Physical, emotional, developmental)

Common Errors in Risk Assessment

The Rule of Optimism

Giving parents the benefit of the doubt without sufficient evidence. Being too willing to believe that things will improve, or that a parent's good intentions will translate to changed behaviour.

Start Again Syndrome

Treating each assessment as if the family's history doesn't exist. Failing to consider patterns of behaviour and previous concerns.

Disguised Compliance

Mistaking surface cooperation for genuine change. Parents may attend appointments and appear engaged while no meaningful change occurs.

Confirmation Bias

Only noticing information that confirms your existing view, whether positive or negative.

Fixed Thinking

Becoming stuck in an initial assessment and failing to update it as new information emerges.

Over-Reliance on Single Factors

Focusing too heavily on one aspect (positive or negative) without considering the whole picture.

Professional curiosity: Always ask "What if I'm wrong?" Challenge your own assumptions and consider alternative explanations for what you're seeing.

Structured Professional Judgement

Best practice combines structured tools with professional judgement:

Structured: Systematic consideration of known risk and protective factors
Professional: Informed by training, experience, and research evidence
Judgement: Human reasoning about what the factors mean for this specific child

Neither pure actuarial assessment (checklist-based) nor pure clinical judgement is sufficient alone. The combination - structured professional judgement - is most effective.

Recording Risk Assessment

Your risk assessment should be clearly documented:

RISK ASSESSMENT SUMMARY RISK FACTORS IDENTIFIED [List specific risk factors present in this case, with evidence] 1. [Risk factor] - [Evidence/source] 2. [Risk factor] - [Evidence/source] PROTECTIVE FACTORS IDENTIFIED [List specific protective factors, with evidence] 1. [Protective factor] - [Evidence/source] 2. [Protective factor] - [Evidence/source] ANALYSIS [Your professional analysis of how risk and protective factors interact. What is the nature of the risk? How likely is harm? What would be the impact?] CURRENT RISK LEVEL [High / Medium / Low - with clear rationale] RATIONALE [Why you have reached this conclusion. What factors have most influenced your judgement?] WHAT WOULD REDUCE RISK [Specific changes that would reduce risk] WHAT WOULD INCREASE RISK [Warning signs that risk is escalating] RECOMMENDED RESPONSE [What level of intervention is proportionate to the assessed risk?]

Dynamic Risk Assessment

Risk is not static. Build in ongoing monitoring and reassessment:

Triggers for reassessment: Identify what changes should prompt review
Escalation indicators: What would tell you risk is increasing?
Improvement indicators: What would tell you risk is reducing?
Review points: Schedule regular reassessment

Multi-Agency Risk Assessment

Risk assessment should not happen in isolation. Different agencies hold different pieces of the picture:

Health: Injuries, attendance at appointments, parental health
Education: Attendance, presentation, disclosures, behaviour
Police: Domestic incidents, criminal history, intelligence
Probation: Offender assessment, compliance, risk indicators
Housing: Property condition, anti-social behaviour, visitors
Adult services: Parental mental health, substance misuse, disability

Strategy meetings and multi-agency meetings are opportunities to share information and reach shared understanding of risk.

Document Risk Assessment Clearly

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Conclusion

Risk assessment in child protection is a complex professional skill that combines evidence-based knowledge of risk and protective factors with professional judgement about what they mean for a specific child. It requires rigorous analysis, professional curiosity, and willingness to challenge your own assumptions.

Remember: risk assessment is about making the best possible decisions with the information available. No assessment can predict the future with certainty. What matters is that your analysis is thorough, evidence-based, clearly reasoned, and regularly reviewed as circumstances change.